2023 3M Open Odds, Field & Picks

2023 3M Open Odds, Field & Picks

With major season wrapping up in England last week, now the attention of the PGA Tour turns to the FedEx Cup playoffs. There are just two events left until the playoffs begin. The first one is this weekend in Minnesota for the 2023 3M Open.

PGA Tour Odds

This is the fifth edition of this event after TPC Twin Cities held the 3M Championship as part of the PGA Tour Champions series from 1993-2018. In the first four, Matthew Wolff, Michael Thompson, and defending Cameron Champ were all heavy underdogs prior to winning. Last year, however, Tony Finau won as the betting favorite.

The Course

TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota—a suburb of Minneapolis—hosted the senior tour event annually and was then renovated (at the direction of Tom Lehman) prior to the first PGA Tour stop here in 2019. It’s a par-71 course for the pros with just three par 5s. There is some variety in the final three holes, as No. 16 is a par 4, No. 17 is par 3, and No. 18 is a monster 586-yard par 5 that has just a 35-yard-wide fairway. Depending on how risky a golfer wants to be, they either have to contend with water on the first or second shot. Greens at TPC Twin Cities are also generously large but can give way to some 80-foot putts.

Wolff set the tournament record of 21-under 263 when he won the inaugural edition in 2019.

Can Finau Shake Slump and Repeat as Champ?

Tony Finau (+1400)

Is the betting favorite despite being mired in a slump that has seen him finish outside the top 20 in seven straight events after winning the Mexico Open at Vidanta. Most recently, Tony Finau missed the cut as defending champ of the Rocket Mortgage Classic earlier this month, and he also missed the cut at The Open Championship last week.

Finau scores well at TPC Twin Cities, however, so perhaps a friendly track will turn his luck around. In addition to last year’s win, Finau has a third-place finish here in 2020, and his other two starts yielded finishes in the 20s. All told, he’s shot just one round over par here in 16 trips around the course.

Other 2023 3M Open Contenders

Justin Thomas (+2000)

Is playing in this event for the first time, but it’s out of necessity. Thomas has been mired in a slump essentially since winning the 2022 PGA Championship. Justin Thomas has one top-five finish (WM Phoenix Open in February) and two other top 10s. That leaves him in 75th in the FedEx Cup standings. A golfer needs to be in the top 70 to qualify for the FedEx St. Jude Invitational in two weeks, so Thomas needs to perform well over the next two weeks to move up to qualify for his eighth consecutive playoff appearance. He also needs good results to move up the Ryder Cup standings, as he’s in danger of not being included in that event for the first time since 2015. But Thomas is far off his game. He’s missed the cut in four of his last six events, and he had a round in the 80s at both the 2023 U.S. Open and at Royal Liverpool last week.

Cameron Young (+1400)

Appears to have shaken off his sophomore slump after a tremendous rookie year in 2022. Young placed sixth at the John Deere Classic a few weeks ago and was in the final pairing at the British Open last week before settling for an eighth-place finish. This will also be his first time at TPC Twin Cities.

Sungjae Im (+1600)

Doesn’t have a win yet this year, so this might be his best chance. He was a runner-up here in 2022, and while he had a difficult start to his summer, the South Korean was steady with a 20th-place finish at The Open Championship last week.

Emiliano Grillo (+2500)

Was a nice story in England last week, coming in sixth place for the best major finish of his career. That goes along with a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge in May, and the Argentine is playing some of the best golf going into this event. He also owns a runner-up and a third-place finish in this event in just three starts.

Sepp Straka (+2500)

Is also coming off a strong finish at Hoylake, tying for runner-up despite finishing six shots behind winner Brian Harman. Two weeks before that, Straka cashed in with a win at the John Deere Classic, so like Grillo, he’s on top of his game right now.

Ludvig Aberg (+3000)

A 23-year-old big hitter from Sweden, could put the driver to his advantage at TPC Twin Cities. He’s made just a handful of starts on the PGA Tour, but he owns four top-25 finishes and was fourth at the John Deere Classic a few weeks ago.

2023 3M Open Longshots

Billy Horschel (+10000)

Has had an even more difficult season than Thomas. The former FedEx Cup champ finds himself in 119th in the standings, so the 2022 Memorial winner will likely have to win one of the next two events to make the playoffs. While he doesn’t have a top 10 in a singles stroke-play event in 2023, he has rebounded from his 84 in the first round of this year’s Memorial by not shooting a round over 75.

Lucas Glover (+4000)

Hasn’t won in over two years but has rediscovered his game as of late. He’s looking to build on a seventh-place finish here in 2019. More recently, Glover is on a run of three straight top-six finishes after not scoring a top 10 the entire season before this hot streak in July.

Finau has come into form out of nowhere before, so we’re not discounting him to repeat. Im is due forto contend, and we love the value that Grillo and Straka bring at +2500. Finally, Glover at +4000 is worth a shot.

2023 3M Open Odds by Jazzsports

GOLFERSODDS TO WIN 2023 3M OPEN
Tony Finau+1200
Cameron Young+1400
Sungjae Im+1600
Hideki Matsuyama+1800
Justin Thomas+2000
Emiliano Grillo+2500
Sepp Straka+2500
Ludvig Aberg+3000
Gary Woodland+3000
Stephan Jaegar+3000
Sahith Theegala+3000

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