With the AT&T Byron Nelson Tournament, the richest non-Designated Event with a purse of $9.5 million, coming between the Wells Fargo Championship and the PGA Championship, the field is not as strong as it typically is for this tournament that’s been held in the Dallas, Texas, area since 1944.
The top storyline is whether K.H. Lee can win here three years in a row, which would be the first time that happened on tour since Steve Stricker did it at the John Deere Classic from 2009-11. Texan Scottie Scheffler is the top-ranked golfer in the field. Jordan Spieth, a fellow Texan, was entered by withdrew due to a wrist injury he suffered last week.
The event began as the Dallas Open and became the Byron Nelson Golf Classic in 1968. Tom Watson holds the tournament record with four wins. Sam Snead has won it three times, and along with Lee, two-time winners include Jack Nicklaus and Sergio Garcia.
The tournament has been held at different venues throughout its history, and this will be the third year playing at TPC Craig Ranch, which is located in the Dallas suburb of McKinney, Texas.
It’s fairly lengthy at 7,468 yards and has a par of 72. Golfers are put to the test on hole 18, as they will have to earn a strong finish. The par-5, 552-yard hole is reachable in two, but it will take two perfect shots. The landing zone from the tee shot has nine bunkers to avoid; the putting surface is guarded by three bunkers and there’s also a creek crossing the fairway about 15 yards in front of the green.
Rain is in the forecast, so accompanying winds can cause trouble for some golfers depending on their tee time.
Lee set the tournament record to par here last year with a 26-under 262, breaking the record he set the year before by one stroke.
Used his one Designated Event skip last week by taking off the Wells Fargo Invitational in order to play in this event along with next week’s PGA Championship. Scottie Scheffler has one win in Texas, taking home the WGC-Match Play in 2022 before finishing in fourth there this year. While he hasn’t logged a top-10 finish at TPC Craig Ranch, six of Scheffler’s eight rounds on this course have been in the 60s. He’s also been one of the most consistent golfers on tour—his worst finish in nine 2023 starts is 12th.
This seems to be the Super Bowl for K.H. Lee (+2500), yet he has some value tacked on to his odds. Lee has two career wins, both coming here, and is undefeated at TPC Craig Ranch. He can become the first golfer in over 90 years to record his first three wins in the same tournament. He’s had some nice efforts in 2023, including a seventh at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and is rounding into form after an eighth last week at Quail Hollow.
Another golfer of South Korean descent, Tom Kim, is at +1500. Kim started his hot streak here with a 17th at TPC Craig Ranch before winning twice before 2022 was out. He has cooled off a bit, but he’s been playing against much stronger fields than this one all year.
Also at +1500 is Jason Day. His strong run of golf that he’s had since the winter ended with a missed cut at Quail Hollow, which was surprising given that he was a two-time winner there. Perhaps the extra weekend to reset was what he needed to break a five-year winless streak.
Tyrrell Hatton (+1400) led midway through the Wells Fargo Championship and ended up third when he couldn’t keep up with the low weekend scores posted by Wyndham Clark and Xander Schauffele. The Englishman was also runner-up to Scheffler at The Players Championship, so a breakthrough could come at any week.
Matt Kuchar (+2500) has a pair of top-20 finishes at TPC Craig Ranch. The 44-year-old also has four-straight top-25 finishes, and a third in the Valero Texas Open is included in that stretch. Tom Hoge (+3000), another Texan, is inside the top-30 in scoring on all par 3, 4, and 5 holes this year and didn’t have a round worse than 68 in this event last year.
Gained some confidence after finishing 18th at Quail Hollow to snap a long top-25 drought. Fortunately for the Irishman, he comes to TPC Craig Ranch, where he’s finished ninth and 17th the past two years with a scoring average of 67.50.
Is hoping that not playing the Wells Fargo Championship will keep building his momentum after a third-place finish at the Mexico Open at Vidanta. He placed second in Mexico last year before missing the cut at the Wells Fargo and finishing 51st here. This time around, the week off could play into his favor at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Picked up some Frequent Flier miles by traveling to Japan for a DP World Tour event a couple weeks ago, but came up empty with an MC to his name. He’s hoping that a return to the PGA Tour—where he’s finished in the top 30 in three-straight stroke-play events—will help his fortunes. It doesn’t hurt that he finished 12th in this event a year ago.
Given that there isn’t huge strength at the top of the field, a long shot could take this one, but we don’t see it happening. With Scheffler’s run of consistency, it’s tough to bet against him—even at odds where we’ve only seen Jon Rahm lower this year (+275 at the Mexico Open, where he finished second to Tony Finau). We also like Day to bounce back after a missed cut, Hatton, and Lee at good value to pull off the three-peat.
Here are the latest odds from JazzSports for the PGA Tour’s 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Tournament.
|ODDS TO WIN THE 2023 AT&T BYRON NELSON
|Si Woo Kim