DP World Tour Championship Odds and Betting Picks

The last big tournament in the world of golf for 2023 takes place this weekend in Dubai—the 15th annual DP World Tour Championship.

While this event typically crowns the season-long winner for the DP World Tour series, Rory McIlroy has already clinched that title for the second straight season. But even so, there’s plenty of motivation for the 2023 finale that features a $10 million purse, with $3 million going to the winner.

DP World Tour Odds

Last year’s winner, Jon Rahm, holds the record with three wins in this event and is looking to extend it to four. He can also become the first back-to-back winner here. McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick are also two-time winners and can tie Rahm’s mark of three titles with a victory.

The field features the top-50 golfers from the season-long Race to Dubai standings and doesn’t have a cut. The majors account for a large portion of the points accumulated, so that’s why Rory McIlroy and Rahm, despite nine and seven official starts, respectively, are in the top-two in the standings ahead of third-place Adrian Meronk, who has 23 starts and three wins on the circuit. McIlroy’s official DP World Tour wins this year included the Hero Dubai Desert Classic in January and the Genesis Scottish Open in July. Rahm’s win was at the (U.S.) Masters.

The Course

The Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai, United Arab Emirates has hosted this tournament since it was established in 2009 and is par 72, measuring in at 7,675 yards.

Despite being in the desert, the course features rolling terrain, trees, and plenty of water. The long course is punctuated by a 620-yard monster serving as the 18th hole, which is understandably a par 5.

Henrik Stenson set the tournament record in 2013 by shooting a 25-under 263. Rahm’s winning score last year was -20.

Hovland, McIlroy, and Rahm Are Co-Favorites

Viktor Hovland (+500)

Comes in as one of the favorites after a dominant run at the end of the 2023 PGA Tour season, where he won the BMW Championship and then the PGA Tour Championship the following week. Aside from the Ryder Cup, we last saw him in a fifth-place finish at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.

Rory McIlroy (+500)

Also hasn’t teed off since the Ryder Cup. He’s won two of the three biggest events so far on the DP World Tour schedule, so there’s no reason to think he can’t pick up a third one. This is especially true when you consider his record on the Earth Course: two wins and seven other finishes inside the top six.

Jon Rahm (+500)

Has competed once since the Ryder Cup, finishing ninth in his home country of Spain’s tournament, the Open de Espana. Despite there being no back-to-back champ of this event, Rahm has won three of the last four he’s competed in. Since 2017, Rahm has the best average round score in this event at 67.50—a full stroke better than Alexander Bjork and 1.5 strokes better than McIlroy (69.0).

Other DP World Tour Championship Contenders

There’s a bit more value in Matt Fitzpatrick (+1200), but he should be considered a favorite as well. The Englishman won his last time out at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, and his average over his last 24 rounds on this course is 69.17. He won here in 2016 and 2020, has finished in the top five in his last three tries here, and has ended up no worse than 12th in seven starts.

Two other Englishmen who tasted Ryder Cup glory and have been oh-so-close to winning multiple times this year are at +1400: Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood. Both have excellent track records here, with Hatton scoring a runner-up finish both last year and in 2016 among five top-10 results. Fleetwood also owns a runner-up (2019), was fifth last year, and has two other top-10 finishes.

Min Woo Lee (+1800), who will be a mainstay on the PGA Tour in 2024, has performed well in big events this year, contending for a win at The Players Championship and placing fifth at the U.S. Open. It’s been two years since his last win on this tour, but he performed well in the desert swing earlier this year, finishing 13th at the Dubai Desert Classic and tied for second in Abu Dhabi.

Last time we saw Tom Kim (+1800), he was back in top form by winning the Shriners Children’s Open on the PGA Tour for the second consecutive year. Prior to that, he was sixth at the Open de France, so he’s in good form despite not having played in this event before.

Nicolai Hogjaard (+2500) was fourth in his only trip here in 2021 and is coming off a second-place finish to Max Homa at the Nedbank Golf Challenge last week in South Africa. It’s been nearly two years since his last win, but that one was also on a desert course at the Ras al Khaimah Championship in February 2022.


DP World Tour regulars who are being overshadowed by the bigger stars are worth a look. Adrian Meronk (+2800) responded to being passed over for the European Ryder Cup team by picking up his third victory of the season at the Andalucia Masters last month. He was also a solid 15th against a strong field at the Nedbank Golf Challenge last week and comes to the Earth Course looking to build on his seventh-place effort from 2022.

As we mentioned above, Alexander Bjork (+4500) has the second-best track record here as of late, posting an average round of 68.92 over the course of his last three times playing this tournament. Two years ago, he finished runner-up to Collin Morikawa and didn’t play last year. Giving him some more hope was a 10th-place finish in the Nedbank last week, snapping a skid of three straight missed cuts.

DP World Tour Championship Picks

Some big names have won this event in the past, so we’re going to lean more towards the favorites with our picks. Of the top three, we like Rahm to repeat, but we won’t blame you for going with the other two. Fitzpatrick, Hatton, and Fleetwood have more value and are all worth a look, and we’ll take Meronk as a semi-underdog.

2023 DP World Tour Championship Odds by Jazzsports

Viktor Hovland+500
Rory McIlroy+500
Jon Rahm+500
Matt Fitzpatrick+1200
Tyrrell Hatton+1400
Tommy Fleetwood+1400
Min Woo Lee+1800
Tom Kim+1800
Shane Lowry+2500
Nicolai Hojgaard+2500

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