2023 Alfred Dunhill Championship Odds & Picks

2023 Alfred Dunhill Championship Odds & Picks

The DP World Tour wraps up a four-tournament swing over the past five weeks in the country of South Africa, and countryman Dean Burmester is looking to make history at the 2023 Alfred Dunhill Championship.

DP World Tour Odds

The LIV Golf pro has won events held in the nation in each of the past two weeks and has a chance to become the first person in 40 years to win three weeks in a row. Nick Faldo was the last two accomplish the feat in May 1983.

Burmester leads a large contingent of South African golfers in this event, which is the country’s flagship event by the standard of points issued in the Official World Golf Rankings. It’s also the third-straight tournament co-sanctioned by the DP World Tour and the Sunshine Tour.

The event dates back to 2000, and Charl Schwartzel holds the record with four wins in the tournament. Spaniard Pablo Martin is the only other two-time winner, and many other stars in the golf world have claimed victory here, including Justin Rose, Adam Scott, and Ernie Els.

The Course

Leopard Creek Country Club, in the east-coast city of Malalane, has played host to this event since 2004. The course isn’t as long as what the players faced the past two weeks in Johannesburg with higher elevation. Leopard Creek is par 72 and measures 7,249 yards. Gary Player designed the course, which opened in 1996. The course is known for its beautiful visuals and wildlife, such as leopards, impalas, zebras, and crocodiles, since it borders the Kruger National Park. The fairways here are fast and firm, which bring the many bunkers into play even on what might seem like a safe tee shot. The greens are also faster after a 2018 refurbishment, which has drawn comparisons to Valderrama in Spain.

Schwartzel holds the course record with a 24-under 264, which he achieved in 2012.

Burmester Heavily Favored to Keep Rolling

Dean Burmester (+600)

Leads a huge pack of South African golfers atop the odds board. One thing to take pause in is that Burmester hadn’t performed well at Leopard Creek, but he may have figured some things out last year by finishing tied for seventh. Burmester has used the last two Sundays as launching pads by erasing several-shot deficits each week to win. But he might need a better start here because six of the past nine winners were sitting in the top five after day one.

Other Alfred Dunhill Championship Contenders

Branden Grace, Louis Oosthuzien, and Thriston Lawrence are all at +1300. These are names that anyone who follows South African golf should be aware of. Grace’s last win came in LIV Golf in 2022, but he’s a former winner at Leopard Creek and has finished in the top five in each of his last two tries here.

Oosthuizen is a bigger name, but the results haven’t been there for the 2010 Open Championship winner. His best finish over his last six starts has been 18th, but there is some motivation here. With back-to-back sevenths and three runner-up finishes, this is the last major South African tournament that Oosthuizen has yet to win.

Lawrence is in form and has one more chance to win in his homeland for the third-straight year. His maiden DP World Tour win came in the 2021 Joburg Open, and he followed that up with a South African Open title last fall. He was leading going into the final round of this year’s Joburg, and he also finished in the top 10 at the South African Open last week in defense of his title. He didn’t seem to get a handle on Leopard Creek last year, however, as after an opening-round 69, his other three rounds were 71, 72, and 71 on his way to a 36th-place finish.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+1600) won on this course in 2020 and turned in decent performances over the past two weeks. He was ninth at the Joburg Open and was among the leaders after the first day of the South African Open, but he faded a bit to finish 16th.

Charl Schwartzel (+2100) is the historical favorite here, winning four times, finishing second four more times, and two other finishes inside the top five. But the winner of the inaugural LIV Golf event in 2022 only finished in the top-10 once on that circuit in 2023, and he was 45th at the South African Open last week.

Jayden Schaper (+2600), another South African, has scored top-10 finishes in both legs of this current swing through the country, but we will see if he’ll be able to rebound after last Sunday’s 74, which dropped him from the lead going into the last round to fifth on the final leaderboard.


Believe it or not, the golfer with the best stroke average on this course as of late is not a South African. It’s Scotsman Scott Jamieson (+3000). He’s averaging 69.85 in his lowest 12 rounds here since 2015. He has two top-three finishes in five tries and has ended up no worse than 12th.

Ryan van Velzen (+6000) was tied for the lead with Schaper last Sunday. Van Velzen didn’t fare as badly, however, as his 1-over 73 left him in the runner-up spot, three shots behind Burmester. The 22-year-old was 47th at the Joburg Open in his first attempt at playing in this trio of tournaments.

South Africans have won eight of the last 10 editions of this tournament, and that appears unlikely to change. We have to back Burmester here, but our favorite might be Lawrence. We’ll also take Bezuidenhout, Schaper, and Jamieson as a mild, non-South African longshot.

DP World Tour’s 2023 Alfred Dunhill Championship Odds by Jazzsports

Dean Burmester+600
Branden Grace+1300
Louis Oosthuizen+1300
Thriston Lawrence+1300
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+1600
Erik Van Rooyen+1600
Charl Schwartzel+2100
Zander Lombard+2100
Dan Bradbury+2600
Matti Schmid+2600
Jayden Schaper+2600

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