Joburg Open Odds, Field & Betting Picks
There is plenty on the line this week for the first event of the 2024 DP World Tour season. In addition to winning the 16th edition of the Joburg Open, the top-three finishers not otherwise exempt will qualify for the 2024 Open Championship at Royal Troon. Get the 2023 Joburg Open Odds & Betting Picks here.
Because this week’s event is co-sanctioned by both the Sunshine Tour and the Asian Tour, players from LIV Golf are allowed to compete, and it also gives them a way to earn their spot into the year’s final major. Since LIV Golf events do not earn Official World Golf Ranking points, this is one of the best ways for a LIV Golfer to play his way into the field.
South Africans Charl Schwartzel and Richard Sterne are the only two-time winners of this tournament.
Countryman Thriston Lawrence was victorious here in 2021, and last year, Englishman Dan Bradbury won by three strokes over Sami Valimaki. Both men were long shots of beyond 200-1 to win.
The Course
Houghton Golf Club in Johannesburg plays host to a DP World Tour event for the second year in a row after a nearly 20-year break since the 2004 Alfred Dunhill Championship. It’s a par-72, 7,279-yard parkland course with plenty of tree-lined fairways, but the size of the fairways are generous. Last year’s most difficult hole was the par-4 15th, which measures 536 yards. There were 43 pars on the hole in the final round with just seven birdies. There were 18 bogeys and seven double bogeys on Sunday last year.
The course also plays shorter than the yardage suggests due to it being nearly a mile above sea level—this causes the ball to travel about 10% farther than it typically would. Bradbury’s winning score in 2022 was a 21-under 263.
LIV Golf’s Burmester Favored Over Bezuidenhout and Grace
Dean Burmester (+1000) finished 14th in the LIV Golf standings and returns to try and win here on his home soil this week. He hasn’t played this course before and didn’t contend for a win on the LIV circuit, so it’s tough to get a handle on his form.
Similar can be said for Branden Grace (+1400), who won an LIV event last year and lost a playoff to Dustin Johnson in Tulsa this year. Grace also won the Joburg Open on a different course in 2012. We’re trusting his form a bit more than Burmester’s at this point.
But also at +1400 sits Christiaan Bezuidenhout. Unlike Burmester and Grace, he played this course a year ago and played it well, coming home in third place. The 29-year-old was on last year’s Presidents Cup team and had some good finishes in his first year on the PGA Tour, including a sixth-place effort at the Sanderson Farms Championship last month.
Other Contenders
The last two champions of this event are both at +1850: Thriston Lawrence and Dan Bradbury. Lawrence has been strong on the DP World Tour since winning this event two years ago: He won two times in 2022 and was victorious at the BMW International Open in June. Lawrence also posted a fifth-place finish against a strong field at the DP World Tour Championship last week.
Bradbury was able to play the whole season in 2023 thanks to his win here last November. The 24-year-old struggled for the first part of the year but has come on as of late. His worst finish over his last four events is 17th, which was last week in Dubai. He was fifth two weeks ago at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in this country and was sixth last month in the Open de Espana.
Hennie du Plessis (+2500) also performed well at the Nedbank, coming in sixth. Three of his last seven starts worldwide have netted a finish inside the top 15, and he was able to rest last weekend and not travel to Dubai like Lawrence.
Romain Lanasque (+2250) came in ninth here a year ago, so he has more experience on this course than most in the field. He’s also in solid form, coming in a more than respectable 11th in the DP World Tour Championship.
Zander Lombard (+2500) was 22nd last week in Dubai but isn’t far removed from a runner-up finish in France in late September, which was one of three that he picked up during the 2023 DP World Tour season. He’s a bit inconsistent on the greens, but he’s got length off the tee, which will be a big advantage here.
Longshots
Charl Schwartzel (+3000) is looking for a record third Joburg Open title. The LIV Golf pro won the first-ever event on that circuit in June 2022 in London. He had a tougher time in LIV in 2023, but he did finish the year with two top-20 finishes.
Adri Arnaus (+6600) would fit the bill of a longshot winner, and while he didn’t qualify for the DP World Tour Championship last week after a mostly disappointing season, the Spaniard does have two top-20 finishes in his last four events. Arnaus didn’t play here last year, but he does own two runner-up finishes in this tournament among four top 10s total.
2023 Joburg Open Odds & Prediction
Among the golfers at the top of the odds board, Bezuidenhout stands out due to his solid form and his strong finish here a year ago. We would favor him over Burmester and Grace. Instead of going with those two, we like the value in Lawrence after last week’s strong finish along with Bradbury for a chance to repeat. Further down, we’ll back du Plessis and Lombard to score wins as native South Africans.
Here are the latest odds from JazzSports for the DP World Tour’s 2023 Joburg Open.
| GOLFER | ODDS TO WIN 2023 JOBURG OPEN |
| Dean Burmester | +1000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | +1400 |
| Branden Grace | +1400 |
| Dan Bradbury | +1850 |
| Thriston Lawrence | +1850 |
| Adrian Otaegui | +2250 |
| Romain Langasque | +2250 |
| Hennie du Plessis | +2500 |
| Matthew Southgate | +2500 |
| Zander Lombard | +2500 |
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